0.4% GROWTH. DON’T BLOW IT.

Britain has been handed a glimmer of hope. The next Budget could either build on it — or kill it.

I want to start with some good news.

The UK economy is growing.

The latest figures show GDP expanded by 0.4% in the three months to July, marking the eighth consecutive three-month period of growth. Services grew by 0.6%.

Is 0.4% going to transform Britain overnight?

Of course not.

Is it enough?

Absolutely not.

But after everything British businesses, investors, entrepreneurs and consumers have had thrown at them…

I’ll take it.

Because growth matters.

Growth creates jobs.

Growth creates tax receipts.

Growth encourages investment.

Growth improves confidence.

Growth gives entrepreneurs a reason to take risks.

And ultimately, growth, not endless taxation, is how you build a more prosperous country.

Which brings me to the next Budget.

Because I genuinely believe this could be one of the most important Budgets Britain has faced for years.

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PLEASE, DON'T BLOW IT.

We've got a little momentum.

We've got evidence that, underneath all the negativity, the British economy still has some fight left in it.

And yet I worry we're one tax-heavy Budget away from crushing that optimism again.

Because here's the contradiction I struggle with.

We desperately need investment.

We desperately need entrepreneurs.

We desperately need businesses to grow.

We desperately need wealthy people to invest capital here.

We desperately need people to aspire to become successful.

And yet too often, the political conversation seems to revolve around:

What can we tax next?

At what point do we realise that there is another side to the equation?

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People can leave.

Capital can move.

Businesses can relocate.

Investment can go somewhere else.

And increasingly, other countries are actively competing for it.

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THE WORLD IS COMPETING FOR WEALTH..

For decades, when people talked about international wealth, the same places came up.

Monaco.

Switzerland.

Then the UAE became an enormous magnet for entrepreneurs, investors and internationally mobile wealth.

But now the competition is much broader.

Countries across southern Europe and beyond have introduced or developed regimes designed, in different ways, to attract internationally mobile people and capital.

Portugal has spent years attracting overseas residents and investment. Italy has used a flat-tax regime for qualifying new residents. Greece offers incentives aimed at attracting foreign taxpayers and investment. Turkey has also actively courted international capital and wealthy residents.

The individual rules vary enormously, and they change.

But that's almost beside the point.

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The direction of travel is obvious.

Countries are competing for successful people.

Competing for entrepreneurs.

Competing for investment.

Competing for capital.

Why wouldn't they?

Successful people don't simply bring a tax return with them.

They buy houses.

Employ people.

Start companies.

Invest.

Spend.

Build networks.

Create opportunities.

And here's the irony.

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THAT IS EXACTLY HOW LONDON BECAME LONDON.

For generations, the City of London prospered partly because Britain understood something incredibly powerful:

Capital goes where capital is welcomed.

Talent goes where talent is rewarded.

Investment goes where investors believe there is opportunity.

London became one of the great financial centres of the world by attracting money, expertise, businesses and people from around the globe.

And now?

At times it feels as though we're conducting the experiment in reverse.

How much tax can we impose?

How much uncertainty can we create?

How unattractive can we make Britain before people actually decide to go somewhere else?

That doesn't mean successful people shouldn't pay tax.

Of course they should.

It doesn't mean there shouldn't be difficult decisions on spending or public finances.

There should.

But there is an enormous difference between taxing prosperity and creating prosperity that can then be taxed.

And I think Britain has become far too obsessed with the former.

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THIS BUDGET IS ABOUT MORE THAN TAX RATES..

This is why I think the next Budget matters so much.

It's about sentiment.

Business confidence.

Consumer confidence.

International confidence.

Investor confidence.

Does Britain want businesses to invest?

Does Britain want entrepreneurs to build?

Does Britain want wealthy international investors to come here?

Does Britain want its own successful people to stay?

Does Britain still celebrate aspiration?

Those questions matter.

Because economies aren't spreadsheets.

They're ultimately millions of individual decisions.

Do I hire that person?

Do I open that office?

Do I invest that £1 million?

Do I start that company?

Do I buy that property?

Do I stay in Britain?

When confidence improves, those decisions can become yes.

When governments repeatedly change the rules, raise taxes and create uncertainty…

They can become no.

And that's why this little piece of positive economic news matters.

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0.4% CAN BECOME MORE.

But it can also disappear very quickly.

The ONS itself cautions that early GDP estimates can be revised as more information becomes available.

So nobody should be cracking open the champagne yet.

But Britain has been given something incredibly valuable.

A little momentum.

Build on it.

Encourage investment.

Back businesses.

Reward entrepreneurship.

Give people confidence.

Control government spending.

Create stability.

And make Britain somewhere that ambitious people around the world once again actively want to bring their money, businesses and ideas.

Because the alternative is watching other countries do exactly that while we wonder where everybody went.

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AND WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR INVESTORS?

This is where I think the conversation gets even more interesting.

Because I don't know what the Chancellor is going to announce.

I don't know whether this 0.4% becomes the beginning of a stronger period for Britain.

I don't know whether the Budget boosts confidence, or destroys it.

And neither does anybody else.

Add in geopolitical uncertainty, energy prices, inflation, bond yields, central-bank policy and stretched valuations in parts of global markets, and investors are being asked to navigate an unusually complicated environment.

But here's the important point.

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We don't need everything to go right to find opportunities.

That's one of the fundamental principles behind TPP.

We're not building portfolios on the assumption that Britain must boom.

We're not building them on the assumption that America must keep rising.

We're not building them around one Budget, one government or one economic forecast.

Markets move.

Conditions change.

Opportunities change.

So we adapt.

We can participate when we believe markets offer value.

We can reduce exposure.

We can sit flat.

We can look to re-enter after retracements.

And through certain strategies, we can seek opportunities in both rising and falling markets.

We won't call every turn correctly.

Nobody does.

But we're not relying on one answer to every market environment.

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TO OUR CLIENTS: WE'VE GOT YOU.

We'll be watching this Budget closely.

We'll be watching the bond market.

We'll be watching inflation.

We'll be watching valuations.

We'll be watching what markets tell us rather than simply what politicians tell us.

And whatever comes next, our job remains exactly the same.

To manage risk.

To adapt.

To look for opportunity.

And to make decisions based on the market we actually have — not the market we'd like to have.

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AND TO EVERYONE ELSE…

Perhaps you're looking at Britain and thinking:

Where on earth does this go next?

Perhaps you're worried about tax.

Perhaps you're worried about markets.

Perhaps you're wondering whether another economic shock is around the corner.

You don't need certainty about the economy before thinking about your portfolio.

Because economic uncertainty itself can create investment opportunities.

And perhaps what you need isn't somebody promising to predict the future.

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Perhaps you need an investment approach designed to adapt when the future changes.

That's TPP.

So if you're unsure about the economic outlook but want to understand how we approach markets differently, come and talk to us.

Book a free portfolio consultation today.

Let's look at what you're doing now.

Let's look at how you're positioned.

And let's show you how TPP thinks about investing in an uncertain world.

BOOK A CALL WITH TPP. Click here.

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0.4% GROWTH.

It's good news.

More of this please.

But Britain has a choice.

Build on it.

Encourage aspiration.

Welcome investment.

Back entrepreneurs.

Give businesses confidence.

Or tax the life out of the recovery before it has even properly begun.

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DON'T BLOW IT.

We'll be watching the next Budget very closely.

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TPP

Capital at risk. Investments can fall as well as rise. TPP strategies may use leveraged financial instruments, which can magnify gains and losses. Past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator of future performance and future returns are not guaranteed.

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Alternatively if you would rather have a conversation with our team, and ask the probing questions in your mind then SCHEDULE A CALL WITH TPP: CLICK HERE.

We look forward to hearing from you.

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TPP's year-to-date average return across participating client accounts is 24.11%*.
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‍There is a substantial risk of loss in trading financial markets. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The examples in this article are illustrative and do not guarantee that any strategy will outperform a benchmark or avoid losses.

*Results as of 14th August 2026 and refer to the combined average of all client discretionary portfolio accounts (across all strategies), after fees, calculated on a Time Weighted Return basis.

Disclaimer: This document is issued by TPP, being provided for information purposes only. This document does not constitute legal, tax, accounting or investment advice, nor should it be relied upon when making investment decisions. This is not a personal recommendation or an offer or invitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The market conditions and views expressed are as at the date of publication, which may change without notice. Unless otherwise stated, market data has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While believed to be accurate, no representation or warranty is given as to its completeness or accuracy.

TPP strategies invest in leveraged financial instruments, including equity index futures. Leverage can magnify both gains and losses, meaning losses may occur more quickly than in unleveraged investments. Investments involve risk and investors may lose some or all of their invested capital. Your capital is at risk.

Past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of investments, and any income from them, can fall as well as rise, and investors may not recover the amount originally invested. Future returns are not guaranteed. Therefore, you should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy will be profitable or equal to the corresponding past performance.

TPP is a trading name of UCapital Asset Management LLP. UCapital Asset Management LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA No. 477155). 80 Coleman Street, London EC2R 5BJ.

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Capital is at risk. Investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. TPP strategies may use leverage and short selling, which can magnify losses as well as gains. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Nothing above constitutes a personal recommendation.

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