We've Now Been Buying Into This Market Dip. This Is Why....

Just over two weeks ago the Iranian war began.

Tensions had been building for months, but markets seemed strangely complacent.

Equities had surged.
The FTSE had rallied strongly.
Gold and Silver had climbed.
And the AI boom had kept US technology stocks hovering close to all-time highs.

But beneath the surface, something didn’t quite feel right.

Valuations were stretched.

Sentiment was complacent.

And in our view, markets looked fragile.

That is precisely why, in the months leading up to the conflict, we had already started becoming more cautious.

Positions were trimmed.

Exposure was reduced.

And capital was quietly moved to the sidelines faster than we might normally do.

Why?

Because our clients don’t work with TPP to simply track a market.

They work with us to beat it.

And doing that sometimes means having the discipline to step back when markets are overheated, and the patience to wait for better opportunities.

‍

Week One: Watching, Waiting......

When the war first broke out, markets reacted quickly.

One by one, major assets began to fall.

The DAX in Germany.
The CAC in France.
The FTSE in London.
Gold.
Silver.
US technology stocks.

Across the board, prices began to retrace.

While many investors were scrambling to react, we remained largely market neutral.

We watched.

We waited.

We looked for opportunity.

By the end of that first week, markets had suffered significant losses.

Yet our portfolios finished the week up around 0.1%.

That wasn’t luck.

It was positioning.

‍

Week Two: Patience.....

Last week we began scanning markets for opportunities.

Discounts were appearing.

Some markets had already fallen 7–8% from their highs.

But patience matters in moments like this.

It would have been easy to rush back in.

It would have been easy to “buy the dip” blindly.

But we don’t do anything blindly at TPP.

Instead, we waited for the dust to settle.

Headlines remained dramatic.

Volatility remained high.

But gradually markets began to stabilise.

And that is when we started to act.

‍

Week Three: Buying the Dip......

Trade by trade.

Market by market.

Position by position.

Over the past few days we have started re-entering global equity markets.

Today, TPP has exposure in:

• The FTSE
• The CAC
• The DAX
• The Dow Jones
• The S&P 500
• The Nasdaq

At the same time, we have closed a number of short positions in profit.

In simple terms:

TPP has now started buying this market dip.

‍

Is This The Bottom?

Nobody knows.

Anyone who claims they can call the exact bottom of a market is guessing.

But what we do know is this:

At these levels, we are comfortable beginning to rebuild exposure.

The discounts now available are attractive.

But we are not all-in.

Far from it.

There is still capital on the sidelines.

There is still ammunition available.

And if markets fall further, we are perfectly positioned to deploy more.

‍

Flexibility Is The Edge......

Some of our current positions are tactical.

If markets bounce strongly, we may take profits quickly.

Others are positioned with a slightly longer-term horizon, targeting the discounts created by recent volatility.

And some capital remains undeployed, ready to act if markets present even better opportunities.

In other words:

We remain flexible.

Because in volatile environments like this, flexibility is often the difference between simply surviving markets…

…and outperforming them.

‍

When Volatility Arrives, Our Model Thrives

Many traditional wealth managers struggle in environments like this.

Their model is simple:

Stay fully invested and hope markets recover.

Our approach is different.

TPP was built to adapt to changing market climates.

Sometimes that means leaning into markets.

Sometimes it means stepping away.

And sometimes, as we have done over the past two weeks, it means waiting patiently for opportunity.

This is where the model really comes into its own.

Because periods of uncertainty often create the best opportunities.....

‍

Looking Ahead

The war is now entering its third week.

Markets remain volatile.

Headlines will likely continue to move prices dramatically.

But our focus remains exactly the same:

Position portfolios intelligently
Manage risk carefully
And use volatility to your advantage wherever possible.

The coming weeks may well bring more challenges.

But they may also bring significant opportunity.

And as always, we will remain disciplined, flexible and ready to act.

Have a great week ahead.

And as always, if you need anything at all, don’t hesitate to reach out.

‍

— LC & The TPP Team

‍

‍