TPP Q3 Review

With Q3 now behind us, TPP are proud to have notched up yet another strong and profitable quarter

The Average strategy performance over the 3 months for TPP was a fantastic 7.33%. A number of portfolios even managed double digit returns in that time proving that what we are doing, really is a cut above the rest.

Our CAC Tech Entry trade took the crown though, notching up 14.90% since July, which is more than the French Index has returned the whole year. By buying in and selling out, TPP traders are able to use the uncertainty, enhance market movements, and turn the volatility into capital for our clients.

Here’s what happened over the quarter.

After the storms earlier in the year, investors basked in a steamy summer market melt-up that has added trillions to record-high share markets and lifted almost everything else, too.

It is as if all the fiscal and trade worries have eased, and investors are back to doing what they do best - buying expensive tech stocks.

The third quarter of 2025 saw positive returns across most major asset classes as trade tensions subsided, AI euphoria continued, and expectations for near-term rate cuts from the Federal Reserve ramped up.

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In the equity market, growth stocks beat their value peers as excitement around the tech sector ratcheted higher. Emerging market stocks outperformed developed market stocks, with the Chinese market leading the charge, buoyed by the extension of the US-China trade truce and AI optimism.

Bond markets were volatile throughout the quarter as global political uncertainty and concerns around fiscal sustainability came into focus. Nonetheless, the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index ended the quarter up 0.6%, as US Treasuries rallied and credit spreads tightened.

Small-cap stocks and REITs were fuelled by resilient global activity data and rising expectations for near-term policy easing from the Fed.

The broad Bloomberg Commodity Index ended up 3.7% for the third quarter. Expectations of a surplus in the oil market weighed against elevated geopolitical tensions, leaving oil prices down0.8%, while gold rallied.

Equities

UK equities rose, with the FTSE All-Share up 6.9%. While the domestic economic backdrop is challenging, three quarters of the index’s revenues are derived abroad, and thus a resilient global economy, alongside a weaker sterling, supported returns.

The MSCI Europe Index was the laggard of the quarter, delivering 2.8% in Q3. The lacklustre performance of German equities acted as a drag on overall European performance, with the MSCI Germany Index falling -1.2%.

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Despite a period of political instability, French stocks rose over the quarter, but much of this was regaining earlier losses, with the CAC 40 Index up 3.3%. After a vote of no confidence, former Prime Minister Bayrou was ousted and replaced by the current Prime Minister Lecornu (since writing Lecornu has resigned). Economic uncertainty still lingers as questions remain around whether the minority government can push through the necessary fiscal consolidation measures.

In the US, it was a solid quarter for equities. There were some intra-quarter wobbles, namely following the July non-farm payrolls release and a sell-off in US Treasuries in September. Nevertheless, gains were supported by a decent second-quarter earnings season and a resilient macro backdrop.US headline inflation accelerated from 2.7% year-on-year to 2.9% in August, but tariff passthrough has so far been more modest than previously feared. As a result, the Fed was able to lower the fed funds rate by 0.25% at its September meeting – its first rate cut of the year – and signalled further easing ahead, supporting US stocks.

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Bond Market Performance

US government bonds delivered 1.5% over the quarter. Short-term Treasury yields fell as market attention shifted from upside inflation risks to downside growth risks. While activity data remains resilient, the labour market showed clearer signs of cooling.

European government bonds fell -0.2% over the quarter. The gap between 10-year French and German bond yields reached its widest level since January 2025 as France faced political obstacles to addressing its 6% budget deficit.

In the UK, still-sticky inflation, alongside renewed focus on the fragility of government finances ahead of the November budget, helped to push 30-year Gilt yields to their highest level since May 1998 in September. UK bonds ended the quarter down -0.7%.

Japanese Government Bonds were the laggard, down -1.5%. Political and fiscal uncertainty added to volatility following the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s defeat in the Upper House election in July and Prime Minister Ishiba’s subsequent resignation. Hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan at its September meeting put further upward pressure on JGB yields.

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Commodities

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Gold prices soared higher in the third quarter, outpacing the second quarter’s 5.0% return. The rally in gold marked a continuation of a multi-year trend that has seen the precious metal double in price.

Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-have  asset, and it has become more attractive to investors amid rapid and unpredictable changes in trade policy and the geopolitical landscape. A retreat from USD-denominated debt by foreign governments has also pushed up prices.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices slumped -4.2% in the third quarter as the US and member countries of the OPEC+ cartel increased production. Copper prices fell 4.4% in the third quarter after trading relatively flat in the second quarter.

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TPP had another stellar quarter, returning an average of 7.33% over the 3 months to October, meaning the average TPP trading strategy is now up 22.58% as of 30^th September.

This surpasses even our own high expectations, and we hope that it continues over the final 3 months of the year and into 2026.

Volatility is something that active traders are able to use, thus enhancing returns on the back of political and economic uncertainty. Rather than fear market moves, we embrace them. Many of our strategies are constantly buying in and selling out to make the absolute most of the excitement so far this year.

Q3, like most quarters, had its ups and downs, and this meant that a number of our long/flat strategies were able to really outperform. Our trackers obviously returned slightly better than their benchmarks due to the way they are built, but the long/flats knocked them out of the park.

Here are ten of our best performers in Q3 and their year-to-date performances. If clients have these in their portfolios, then this is an accurate representation of how they will have performed.

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While most fund managers simply have to rely on the market going up, at TPP, we do not. We actively manage multiple trading strategies to create the best absolute portfolios possible. If anyone has told you that active can’t beat passive, it’s because they don’t trade and don’t understand. They are most likely a wealth manager sitting idly, rather than a professional trader working all day, every day, with one purpose: to make money. That is what our job is, to make clients money, so that’s what we do, and our performance is out there for all to see.

The heat is now on to see how the year ends and who can take the crown of best performing portfolio manager. Most trading strategies are in double figures, so we expect it to be a big number this year.

It is also worth mentioning at this point that we have a number of new trading strategies available for clients. They haven’t been included in the year-to-date performances above if their records only began this year on our platform, but some have had a fantastic start, with several now already over a 20% return on the year.

We are always looking for ways to build better and more profitable portfolios for our clients. Average simply isn’t good enough. We work hard for our clients, and they are reaping the rewards. Check out our client testimonial page to see what they’ve got to say.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are the company’s own and should not be considered as rendering any legal, business or financial advice.

Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, you should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy will be profitable or equal to the corresponding past performance.

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