Could doing nothing be the biggest risk of all?

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Stock markets have had another good year so far. When they do, even average Fund Managers do well. 

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It’s always hard to know which markets will perform the best, which is why most wealth managers will just spread the investment over all the major global indices and then just leave it.

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‍They aren't trying to outperform, they're just trying not to mess up.

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This makes sense, and it only takes them about 5 minutes to do, as the allocations are all predetermined. It won't stop them from charging you though. In fact, some will even charge you just to enter the market! Then if you want your capital back, they'll charge you for that too! It has worked well for the industry for decades, but investors are becoming more savvy and are now asking for more from their management fees.

We don’t blame you.

The global economy is slowing, and the AI hype was the story of2024/25. So what’s next? Can you see where the big equity returns will come from next?

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Neither can they.

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So is the biggest risk next year the ‘Buy and Hope’ strategy employed by 99% of wealth managers? It could well be. Stocks are now at a level where value is hard to find. If you think the AI play will continue, then you should be aware of one chart. This is the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio) of the U.S. stock market, and what it tells us is where prices are compared to inflation-adjusted earnings of the previous 10 years. 

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    CAPE  Ratio from Long-term Trends, Accurate as of 14th November 2025.  

Notice anything alarming? 

     👉 Does it look like a good time to ‘Buy  and Hope’? 

Sometimes the market crashes because of external factors, like  COVID or the Russian invasion, but sometimes it happens because valuations  are simply inflated due to exuberance. The dot com bubble of 1999/2000 would  be a good example of this, which you can see above, shown as the second of  the 2 major spikes.

The first spike was the great ‘Wall Street Crash’ of 1929,  which ended the over speculation on stocks during the ‘Roaring Twenties’. The  CAPE Ratio is now higher than it was then. Even on its own, that's quite  worrying.

     👉The chart above shows that  U.S. valuations are back in the danger zone. 

Now, lots of people will say ‘this time it’s different’ and on  several levels it is:

 - Tech earnings are growing fast. The future is being priced  in.

- The mega cap tech companies are real and they're making  money.

- It’s easier to invest than ever before and U.S. households  are doing just that.

However, common sense also tells us to be wary. Emotions make  mistakes and as experienced investors, we are reading the signs and we are  adapting portfolios accordingly. We aren’t saying there is going to be a  stock market crash, certainly not one like in 1929 or even 2000, but we do  think it makes sense to change the basic approach.

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At TPP our professional traders are able to use financial instruments unavailable to the average investor. In fact, they are unavailable to the average wealth manager too as they wouldn't understand them. Traders and wealth managers are from different worlds.

👉Wealth managers wouldn’t understand how to hedge a portfolio using index options.

👉 They don’t sell out in seconds and sit, waiting for the next opportunity to buy back into the market.

👉 They won’t short the market, looking for returns if the market falls.

😡 They will, however, buy, hold and blame the market for their own incompetence if the market drops. 

It's not good enough and you deserve better.

If what we’re saying makes sense, then maybe you are ready to speak to TPP about building a portfolio for the future. Equities cannot be relied upon for big returns in the coming years; investors need to adapt, and that’s what we’ve done for you.

Our portfolios are traded by professionals. We adopt a multi-strategy approach, looking to make the most out of volatility. We don’t fear market drops, we embrace them.

By buying and selling we can do what no other Asset Managers will do. We can actively trade your capital.

Check out our website to see how our trading strategies have performed over the last few years. We are excited about the upcoming equity fluctuations, as you should be too. Unless, of course, you're happy with your 'Buy and Hope' investments. 

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